Thursday, January 1, 2009

New Year 2009

Happy New Year 2009.

Like all of us, the new year is greeted with mixed emotions. A difficult year 2008 has passed and hopes for an easier 2009 is a unitive prayer. The financial meltdown has put many of us, older folks, at risk of losing work, jobs and business. For the younger among us, school starts tomorrow and their world is somewhat insulated from the angst that keep us from being totally happy as the year passes and another enters. In short, there will always be happy people and there will always be sad ones and of course, there will be those who have not yet decided what camp they want to be on.

This blog discusses the difference between work and toil. How we perceive what we do most hours of the day, as work or toil, disposes us to how much effort we will put into it, be it at the office, school or home.

We begin with a borrowed phrase from the Bible, "by the sweat of your face will you earn your food until you return to the ground". In order to eat, one has to work. If you are a farmer, the path is obvious. Plant and the yield is yours to have. If you are not a farmer, like most of us, then, we work to get a wage with which we will exchange parts thereof to buy food.

Work or toil? The difference is free will and passion. If what you do makes you happy, then it is work. If what you do, go against what you want to do, then it is toil. A simple explanation and that suffices.

A new year resolution : do what you like. If you are already there, Congratulations!
If you are not, could you look at what you do and decide how you could perceive the role you play with a little more positive bias? And if you really cannot do so, could you change jobs to something more to your liking. You will see that if you like the work before you, your energy and passion will be well directed. Every success, even little ones, will be greeted with enthusiasm and a smile, and rest assured the stress is also positive and therefore good. This is an important perspective to have - do what you like if you want to remain happy, healthy and stress free. You will either live longer or die happy. In any case, that is a good outcome.

I work in a fund management company. I seek to promote value adding investment ideas to help the clients achieve their financial objectives. If the client is a pension fund, an insurance company or an investment advisor, the satisfaction comes from their clients ie individuals (retail is the jargon description) benefitting from the pluses to their saving pool.This past year is stressful because all investment vehicles have lost money and therefore these individuals have bore the brunt of the asset value declines.Work then in 2009 may develop to become toil as I struggle to find good value adding ideas in investments in a world which does not want to play along. The invested clients are not all understanding and will likely lay blame on the loss making advice given. This is part of the moral hazard associated with this trade. But continuing to look for good ideas is important if I wish to remain in this line. I have a choice to make here, project a even worse 2009 and give up or look for silver lining among the dark clouds and begin there. These silver linings are likely to be found in : agriculture, commodities, social responsible investing e.g. climate change, sectors which are essential for our day to day living. The good news, there are enough ideas to build upon.

My daughter and son are students, and their main objective is to do well scholastically. Work or toil, they too have a decision. For them, each field of study enlarges their known world and will prepare them for the world to come.Perhaps it is not too early to begin thinking what they want to be and do when they grow up and once decided, their studies will take on a more purposeful direction. My daughter aspires to be a marine biologist and my son just wants to be rich. In both, what you know is important building blocks for their paths to be trodden.

My wife is a homemaker, and household work or chores, is a daily activity. She too has to make the decision of what to do, when to do and why they are to be done. When I come home and find her irritable, then I know that what she had been doing the day were chores. After these many years of marriage, I am able to list what are chores to her and what are not. The simple solution here is to delegate the chores to somebody else. Perfect would be to find one who does not mind doing them, either within the members of the family or to outsource to an au pair

The message here : choose the mindset for the task at hand. Choose the positive perspective if you wish to be happier. Yes it is a matter of choice. Make yours today as the first resolution of the year.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Holidaying in Tasmania

The family and I have recently returned from a short 10 day trip to Tasmania.

The weather was ideal, between 8 - 18 deg C, food was great and with the Aussie dollar at nearly 1 : 1 Singapore Dollar, everything became relatively CHEAP!In short a very pleasant holiday.

We rented a Toyota Tarago, an 8 seater (5 passengers + bags) and this was a good plan. At nearly A$60 per day with 200km free and GPS (very reliable), this offer could hardly be beat.

If you are considering a retirement place, Tasmania should certainly be on your radar. If you, like our family, love oysters and sea food, you can have them all over here. The oysters were the best I have had in years. Prawns and crayfish, cooked straight from the nets, were always sweet with a hint of the sea salty flavor which enhances the treat. The types of fish, often deep water types, were more than what we see in the wet markets of Singapore.

If there was any complaint, it would be the television programmes. In the 9 days that we were over there, I did not and could not easily get to view any global news network, read any global financial newspapers. In a way that is a blessing if one truly wants to be away from the hassle and bustle of big city living. For that is what you get and if the cold turkey phase passes, you might be able to truly relax and enjoy what the country has in store for you.

Fresh air - possibly the best in the world, given the 480,000 people and therefore significantly low population of cars as well. One can drive for miles and there would be few cars ahead or behind you. So driving is practically stress free.

Nature walks aplenty and with breathtaking landscape to go with it. Wineglass Bay, Freycinet coast lines were awesome. Nature parks to visit with the Tassie Devil, the kangaroos and wallabies, the wombat, the deer, the geese connect with you and the one thought that we are one with them, keeps popping up.

In these few days, we had travelled a leisurely 1200 km, and visited just a little over one quarter of the island. So definitely a return to Tasmania to cover the other parts in the years ahead. Just make sure, each visit allows a minimum of 14 days, to just fall in love with the country and prepare to leave with some travel lust yet unfulfilled.

The destination is now on my list of countries to retire in. The key word is retire because to find work on the island, one has to be prepared to be a farmer for fruit and animals. The cherries are now coming into season, and so for the strawberries, persimmons, apples, figs, apricots, berries etc... the list just goes on.

I can't wait to return. My son Peter-Jan has suggested a male bonding trip, father and son, the next time round. This surely is a must do.

The next blog will see a review of 2008 and a preview of 2009.

Merry Christmas and wishing you the reader a very fulfilling 2009.

Friday, October 31, 2008

Blood on the Streets October 2008

This has to be the worst October for the investor finance world in a 100 years. Well at least in my working life time of 27 years.

Global stock markets have sunk to historic lows. With it, our hard earn savings invested into stocks, bonds, unit trusts, property and what have you. Value lost would play in the 50 - 100 % from that of 1 year ago or even 1 month ago.

Certainly the investment strategy of "invest for the medium and long term" no longer sound wise. So what does one do in the current situation. Clearly, to sell into the lows is not a good idea. However, if there is any perception that the markets could go further down, the temptation is to sell now and buy later. Only 1 fault here; we do not have the crystal ball of future market moves. So really the only strategy is one of hold and look for bargains to add to your portfolio of investments. The strategy that is called into play " buy low and sell high" an advice that has stood the test of time. The assumption is that you have time and the additional financial resources to implement. And really that is what I would recommend to self and you readers.

A thematic approach here is also suggested. Buy into stocks which can take the brunt of the current market scenarios. I am not saying that these stocks will not fall further in price. However, the buy dips into these should be considered. These stocks will typically fall into the following labels:
1. food
2. commodities
3. utilities e.g. power, water, gas, telecommunications
A general principle advocated here : what you would typically have to use and consume, no matter what the world may look like.

And for the rest of time when you are not thinking you about investments; to review what you would consider as the more important matters of life. The thoughts should direct you to the meaningful relationships in your life. This is perhaps also a good time to stop and "smell the roses" ie appreciating the nature and the buzz of life that surrounds you.

Many of life's ills can be traced to the psychological impacts of relationships. The lucky, who have the privilege of being loved and shares love with another. And for those who are perceived less priviledged should perhaps consider re-looking at why they are missing out and to review what ways to change the result. Really the message is about not giving up before trying to look at the world from a different perspective. Change the way you look at the world, and you change the world!

Blood on the streets was a description of the battle of Waterloo, fought between Nelson and Napolean Bonaparte. The finance world has taken the tag line to imply the opportunities which are becoming available and that the worst has probably passed. So a dose of positivism is recommended. Negativism will simply paralyse you from the opportunities which are there but am afraid to reach out. I do not just mean this for the financial investments but rather the good relationships which can be built and cultivated.

See you all at the next blog.

Saturday, October 4, 2008

The bailout of Corporate America -or is it?

The financial markets continue their downtrend. And there isn't much light at the end of the tunnel that can be seen. The US $700 billion package has been passed. Every one of the lawmakers, Democrat or Republican alike, shake hands, high fives and hugs. "Well done", "We've done it". And now we wait for the healing to begin.

This bailout is not the panacea for all ills. The package will come with many conditions. The higher good: the welfare and well being of the American people. And during an election year, these are the rhethoric that will sway and win votes. Noble and good these intentions are. But as always, the devil is in the details, the implementation.

Safeguarding bank deposits, creating jobs, no further governmental deficit spending, protecting homes are phrases that we will hear and read a lot about in the next weeks to months. And why not? People are voters and during election, politicians need the people's votes.

Does this mean that weak banks will be shored up and prevented from failures? Does this mean that institutions which practised imprudence or even mismanagment will be saved? Does this mean that "Fat Cats" who perpetrated the complex network and created the environment for failure, will get away with their Fat pay checks and exit packages?Does this mean that tax payers money will be used to "reward" the wrong doers who put the financial security of tax payers in harm's way?

These are the questions which the American people will need to answer for themselves or get answers, before and as they cast their votes this November. And then after the election, the next question: will the election promises be kept? Kept away or make happen?

The developments which are happening in the USA provide many useful lessons for people like you and I, who do not reside there. I will blog some of these in the weeks to come and look forward to seeing you then.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Financial Markets Woes 2008

First Bear Stearns, then Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Now Lehman Brothers and AIG. Questions surround other big names e.g Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley.

The speed at which these developments occur has seldom been seen before. The named losses and the dollar amounts needed to bail these organisations out have just too many zeroes for the mind to comprehend.

We have just survived one of the worst week in financial history, well at least in my 27 odd years of working life in the finance industry. Strangely though, there is no feeling of pessimism or panic. My investments have taken a tailspin and paper losses mount with each point the markets fall. The rallies that came on Thursday and Friday console but not quite enough to make up the losses.

The question of "is this it or is there more to come?" A general consensus amongst financial experts is that there is more pain yet to be unleashed. They based this diagnostic on the de-levering of asset prices, the need for besieged institutions to sell assets to stay afloat or to use the still valuable assets to attract white knights. But this is the question for the big boys. What about you and I?

What must be on the minds of most (well certainly in mind):
a. look for a rally to sell and minimise losses
b. look for a rally strong enough to take me back to my breakeven, sell there and breather a sigh of relief.
c. look to buy into these crashed/crashing markets.

It's the last point that I would like to discuss a little more. This is not the time for panic selling. The concept strategy for Investments 101 is simply "Buy Low and Sell High". This is the time to put that strategy to the test. This is the time to find bargains and buy.

When markets plummet and prices of stocks fall, invariably they will fall below their worth. This is the result of overdone selling and brings these assets and securities into what is known as oversold conditions. This status can continue for a while as contrarians test the strength of the selling. There will come a tipping point at which, the number of buyers will begin a more courageous attempt to hold the selling. When sellers see this happening and realise that perhaps they could get more by holding back on their selling while the buyers take stocks up, then the pace of decline slows and may even turn around.

I do not know when the tipping point will be reached. However, I have begun to look around and see some markets offering hope. This is a good time to look for your TRUSTED financial advisor to help build or rebuild your investment portfolios.

My personal choices are in stocks of business lines which touch me e.g. food, utilities, transportation. Go round your home or office and look for the brands which continue to hold quality for you. It is likely that others who are like you will have the same perceptions. Start here.

Friday, August 15, 2008

The Practice of Loving

If you have never experienced love, are you able to say "I Love You?"
To your spouse, to your children and yes even to yourself?

But what exactly is an experience of love? What is love?

Going through a marriage preparation course, some 24 years ago, I was captured by this definition of love : Love is a Decision.
The experts went to explain that Love was not a feeling. Many other Love was Not included:
a. feeling good when thinking of someone you like
b. the intensity of affections between people who are "in love"
c. Love food, music, clothes

One common mistake we all make, to confuse love and like. Like is a feeling. Before you next say " I Love......." check whether replacing Like for Love would change the meaning intent of your comment e.g I like Nasi Lemak, Josh Groban's singing, Porsche. The first rule of thumb : we Like things, we don't Love them. If you need a stronger emphasis, then say I very much Like.....

However, Love is a decision. It means no matter what I will Love you (friends, spouse, children and self). There is an unconditional requirement about Love. Hence the requirement that you would need to make a conscious and deliberate choice about someone - is a good assessment whether it is indeed Love or Like.

In the marriage vows, we promise to love and cherish,our spouse, in good times and bad, in sickness and in health,in richness and in poor. for better or for worse, all days of my life, till death do us part. These are just other ways of saying "no matter what", its about unconditionality and its definitely about having to make a choice, a decision. There is a permanence about that decision. Its not subject to whimsical choices, moods, days of the week, times of the year.

Imagine marriage vows saying: we promise to love and cherish, in good times, in health, in richness and for the better. Otherwise I do not so vow. What good marriage can be founded on such qualifying conditions. Would you then say "I do or I will" if your spouse at the altar would not agree to the unconditionality and permanence of the Love vow. And that is what those vows mean- Loving you no matter what.

My personal thoughts are that if one is clear on the definition and distinction between Love and like, our lives would be less confused. We would make better rational choices in speech and deed.

The next blog will discuss how we can practice experiencing love in our life. Its such an important thing to do.

Write me if you would like to chat.

Sunday, July 27, 2008

Retirement Planning

In Singapore the official inflation rate is 7.5 % p.a. With your bank deposit earning 1 % or less, your networth is eroded at a rate of 6.5 % p.a. Essentially, what this means is that in about 11 years, if nothing else happens, your networth or savings will be halved in value. Certainly, for those of you in my age group, ie above 50 years of age, you are facing a retirement time when your purchasing power and the value of your savings would be declining. The higher the inflation rate the faster the value of your savings will be eroded.

What options do we have to mitigate the rot?

Ask a financial planner today, and he/she will be challenged to offer you solutions which would be effective. At best, recommendations to invest would be resorted to. However, in the investment climate, we are moving towards a period of low certainty of returns and high volatilities for loss. Ask the financial planner, for returns greater than the inflation rate of 7.5 % p.a. and he/she probably cannot come up with a "feel good and sleep good" solution.

Let's look at what you CAN do. Energy and food ranks high in the contribution to inflationary costs. And the solution to slow the rate of value erosion lies here, somewhat.

In today's blog, I offer you 2 common lifestyle choices which you can exercise some power over.

If you own a car, then high oil prices will impact you. And each time you go to the pump kiosks, you can feel the pain of this. So the less frequent you need to go get a refill, the less frequent this feeling of pain. Other alternative modes of transportation will get you to your destinations, I am sure:
a. MRT
b. Buses
c. Taxis- although the fares and ERP charges would impact you nearly as much as driving your own car. However, you do not need to worry about car maintenance and depreciation costs. And so I have added this mode as a viable option.
d. motor cycle
e. bicycle
f. walk
g. various combinations of the above.
In short, what I want to convey is there are ample alternatives to cut down the impact of oil prices on the value of your hard earned savings.

On the home front, keep an eye on the use of electricity. The hidden spenders are to be found in the
a. refrigerators
b. air conditioners
c. TV
d. fish ponds and pumps
e. washing machines and dryers
f. water heaters
g. iron
h. hair dryers
i. ovens
These are heavy users of electricity and the more you have them and put them to use each day, you are spending more and you can see this in your power bill. Electricity in Singapore is affected directly by oil prices and it should come as no surprise to you, that with the rising oil prices, your electricity bill has also gone up. Perhaps, seeing the bill once a month, the hit is not as obvious. Track this on a month on month and realise.

What I am saying is that we do have some control over how much we use oil dependent vehicles and appliances. And thus, directly control how much oil price driven inflation affects you.

The other high costs relate to commodity prices including food e.g. rice, wheat, meat and vegetables. The difference between eating out and eating in (ie home cooked meals)is getting higher. That is because, the vendor is able to pass on the increased food costs to you the customer. In these type of cost plus pricing, be sure that the profit markups are there and you do pay more than the increased rate of food price rises. However, eating-in more often, reduces the impact and this period is as good as any to do more home-cooking and eating ie at Mother's or Father's.

Today's blog seeks to have you review your lifestyle and know what is eating up your wages. Saving for tomorrow becomes more difficult as more of your pay goes towards paying more for the things which you are accustomed to having. Rather than giving up, be empowered to do more.

It would be nice to hear from you, on your ideas on how better to win this fight.